Experts «BUSINESS Online” do not see in the appreciation of the domestic currency long-term trend and predict new “black Tuesday”
Maxim Kalashnikov — writer-futurist (Moscow):
” I looked like funneling foreign currency reserves, 5 billion a week. So not happy. I saw that when I dropped the oil, and the ruble was growing up, we were clearly in the flow of foreign exchange reserves. I believe this is incorrect. I believe that it was necessary to devalue the ruble to the desired level and to keep and not to engage in the consumption of foreign exchange reserves. There are ways to cut off from the exchange of currency speculators: if you buy a currency, then the present contract, under what you’re buying. There are examples of restraint of currency speculation banks, as did the crew. Then I would be happy. Then our more government, I’m referring to the Central Bank, used the productive issue, that is, not as they do now, financing the budget deficit, and the emission in the form of loans to the real sector for specific projects.
Because now happening unknown wonders with the ruble, which lead to the disappearance of foreign exchange reserves, and is not used emission, which, incidentally, requires no reserves, because GDP redmonetmizrahi nearly 55 percent, it inspires me, rather disturbing. What they are doing now, reminds me of the process of killing the patient by the physician of the eighteenth century, pneumonia decided to be treated by bloodletting, and cupping too abundant.
Ildar Ablaev — doctor of economic Sciences, Professor of the Department of economic methodology and history of KFU:
— I think that the strengthening of the ruble will be short-lived. This will depend on oil prices and a discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Maybe this sounds cynical, but in the middle East, the war begins, so the oil needs to go up. It is profitable for Russia, but even now gives a very positive effect both for business and for the country as a whole. Formed a favorable environment for ruble zone, the purchase of import goods become cheaper. Plus the tourist season begins, and reduce the cost of package tours also has a positive effect for Russia. The strengthening of the ruble is welcome. In my opinion, adequate price Euro — 20 rubles, dollar — 12 – 14 rubles. There are sectors of the economy in Russia, where one ruble is worth 5 dollars. This production ’s MiG-37″, which uses the latest design and technology, or anti-aircraft missile system s-400 and s-500.
The collapse of the ruble deliberately made by our government to fill the allocated budget. The government decided therefore to improve the Russian budget, and now officials have decided that it makes no sense to keep low the ruble began to strengthen. I had laid down for himself the ruble at the level of 32 rubles per dollar, and 42 — for the Euro. It’s unclear to what extent will the strengthening of the ruble. But honestly, the actions of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina cannot be called literate.
Vyacheslav Zubarev — Chairman of the Board LTD. ‘UK ’s TransTechService”:
— Our business is not so fast to feel the strengthening of the ruble. But certainly this is a positive signal. If only he was not short term. Because, I think, still too early to say that it is getting stronger for a long time. Although, of course, I wish it was so, so long. How can we feel? If we talk about lowering the price, yet we still have their level is not fully consistent with the change in the dollar and the Euro. And any privileges it does not give us. Yes and can not give up so quickly. For this purpose there are no bases. With regard to customer behavior, it is still too early. Hope, but a certainty, probably no one. At least we don’t feel it on our clients.
Every coin has two sides. Our clients — people, ordinary citizens, and certainly on these differences, many lost their money. Because the population in the period of hype and bought dollars, euros, and seeing how now falls course, understand that you will be a direct loss. Certainly, this is also a downside. In the business plan for this year of course we didn’t laid. With such uncertainty it is a futile exercise.
Valentin Katasonov — Chairman of the Russian economic society, Professor at MGIMO:
— But you see it strengthening? It’s like as if a sick person’s temperature was 41, is now 39,8. But if so, then, of course, you can rejoice, but the temperature is kept for a long time already. Actually, it can not but arouse the fears that there may be some consequences of such a long stay in such a serious condition. But the temperature may rise to 42 at any moment, figuratively speaking. The current strengthening is due to the fact that currency speculators have a rest, gather strength, then continue. Almost inevitably something like “black” on Monday and Tuesday of December.
Leonid Baryshev — General Director of ZAO «the Essen Production AG”:
— I don’t see any negative point in the strengthening of the ruble. The market has not yet switched to the new currency exchange rate, and purchasing power of people remained at the previous level positions. Today, without compensation salary we will not be able to raise the purchasing power of the population. Therefore, any strengthening of the ruble, it increases and stimulates domestic demand, which, unfortunately, in the first quarter fell sharply. Although the economy is forced to work in the momentum of domestic demand, which will give and in the construction of a push, and domestic consumption.
It was a positive signal from the market and will be perceived positively by the public, as it will increase their costs and the restoration of purchasing power. So any positive today on the market — though it cannot be any strong catalyst to increase wages, but it’s better than nothing. And we, the producers, today with the hope that the consolidation will continue and will reach at least 50 rubles per dollar. It will be a par, which will enable the buyer to recover the volumes of demand that were lost.
Marat Safiullin — Director of the center for advanced economic studies at the Academy of Sciences, Vice-rector for economic and strategic development of K(P)FU, ex-Minister of economy Republic of Tatarstan:
— Here the answer is quite simple, had a very serious fluctuation in the month of December, early in the year, so now it’s strengthening, it’s a fumble equilibrium price, based on macroeconomic situation in oil prices. Therefore, we cannot say that something has fundamentally changed. Of course, if the ruble strengthens, decreases our competitiveness and improved social wellbeing. And is he going to continue its strengthening, depends on very many factors, the main of which — the price of oil. If it will grow, and I predict that by the end of the year the price of oil is expected to grow, the dollar and the Euro will decrease. Of course, they do not reach those values that were previously, but the decline will be.
Andrei Kobyakov — Chairman of the Board of the Institute of dynamic conservatism (Moscow):
— I don’t think we should be satisfied or dissatisfied, because there are very different aspects. For example, from the point of view of the company’s products “Bosch”, our low purchasing power of the ruble leads to the fact that their business is suffering on hundreds of millions of euros they missed profits. But on the other hand, they say that wages ruble increased, and their equivalent in euros and dollars here allows to make products more competitive. But for whom to produce, if we buy it can’t?
Everything in this world, especially the exchange rate, has a downside: the fact that someone seems unequivocally good, immediately may be the same for him, maybe he still does not think about it, the same way bad. If we talk about the country as a whole, I still think that was a certain kind of kurtosis of the fall of the ruble, he was too sharp, don’t want to say whether it was sufficient or not can be different estimates.
I believe that the current correction, in General, positively, in the sense that the ruble is returned to one axial position, where he will be in equilibrium position. Further developments are highly uncertain, the ruble may continue to grow if, for example, oil prices will start to rise, or is likely to fall dramatically due to the worsening foreign policy situation, another downgrade of the sovereign rating of Russia.
Arthur Abdulzhanov — General Director of “Production Association “morning star”:
— We observe the strengthening of the ruble for a few days, but from the point of view of economic realities do not feel. It is a slow process, and if there must be changes, for example, lower prices for raw materials or the prices of imported components, this will happen soon. Generally, as a crisis practice, when the prices are rising due to inflation, then the decrease of cost of goods is fairly slow. So the prices are something we always raise with pleasure, given their interests, but then, when the ruble strengthens, hardly occurs the same drastic price decrease. I think this is a common practice and objective economic phenomenon, and we’re not seeing anything new. As for our company, we have assumed that there will be some strengthening, so the prices of our products for Russian customers, we didn’t raise. Left them at the level of December.
For me it’s strange that at a quite low price of oil per barrel is the strengthening of the ruble. The impression that this is an artificial trend. And on the economy to artificially influence is difficult, and if it does, then sooner or later there are some difficult economic disasters. Although in any case we see the strengthening of the ruble from a positive point of view, because we’ve learned that dollar was around 60 rubles, and strengthening and interesting to watch